The final terms of the EU-China deal and the local content rules have not been set, and both are still moving through policy channels. Volkswagen has not said which of its German plants will close, though it has threatened to shut up to four. Analyst Gregor Williams warned that a downturn in China's domestic car market could push its price war into Europe, where the market "could become very unprofitable."
Watch whether Brussels adopts the local content rules and the China import limits in their proposed form, since both directly affect Volkswagen's cost base and competitive position in Europe. Plant closure decisions in Germany will show how far the restructuring goes. Blume also faces investor pressure to show progress beyond job cuts, particularly in product development and software. The Paris show, which opens to the public on October 13 after a press day on October 12, will showcase Volkswagen's affordable EVs, including the ID. Tiguan, and will likely be the next public test of that pitch.