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PayPal raises 2026 profit forecast to $5.60 EPS as CEO Lores touts turnaround progress

Published
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21

Why it matters

PayPal raised its full-year non-GAAP earnings guidance to about $5.60 per share from roughly $5.38 after reporting third-quarter 2026 results on October 27. Adjusted earnings came in at $1.45 per share, up 8% and ahead of analyst estimates, while revenue of $8.58 billion fell short of the $8.71 billion forecast, according to LSEG. The company also lifted its transaction margin dollar forecast to about $15.7 billion from $15.6 billion. GAAP earnings fell 4% to $1.25 per share, and restructuring costs rose to $255 million from $69 million a year earlier. CEO Enrique Lores, who took over March 1 after the board removed Alex Chriss, said on the earnings call that he is "increasingly confident in PayPal's earnings growth potential." Shares were reported both lower and higher after the report, with Benzinga citing a drop of about 2% and Reuters reporting a gain of more than 1.8% that reversed premarket losses.

Several points remain open. The filings and the terms of any takeover interest are not public. A reported offer of US$60.50 a share from Stripe and Advent International this summer has not produced a deal, and PayPal has said only that it would consider any acquisition proposal while staying focused on its turnaround. The reported plan to cut the global workforce by about 20% over the restructuring period, first reported by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal in May citing people familiar with the plans, has not been confirmed by the company in the material reviewed. Whether the cost program can produce sustained growth, and whether the double-digit EPS growth ambition is reached, will take multiple years to show.

For attorneys, the near-term items are the workforce reduction and restructuring charges, which will carry employment, severance, and WARN-related questions as the plan executes, and any formal takeover process, which would bring deal, antitrust, and fiduciary issues to the fore. Chair David Dorman, appointed Independent Board Chair with immediate effect, will be the person to watch on governance and any approach from Stripe or Advent. Lores has tied the turnaround to Venmo and Braintree, which he said "were not getting enough attention" and now have more investment, so product and competitive developments in those units are worth tracking alongside the earnings trajectory.

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