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VC shifts from software to hardware as AI squeezes software valuations

Published
Score
13

Why it matters

Venture capital is rotating away from software and toward hardware, infrastructure, and physical systems—a strategic shift driven by investor conviction that artificial intelligence will erode traditional software business models while creating durable value in the layers that power AI itself.

The movement reflects deepening concern that AI tools will compress software revenue, particularly subscription and seat-based pricing models that have anchored the sector's growth. Investors are simultaneously pulling capital from software and services stocks and redirecting it toward compute, data centers, security, and robotics companies. The logic is straightforward: infrastructure and security providers sit closer to critical systems and face lower displacement risk than software vendors selling tools that AI might eventually commoditize or replace.

For attorneys advising software companies, infrastructure providers, or investors, the implications are material. Software firms should expect continued pressure on valuations and growth multiples as this capital rotation persists. Infrastructure and security companies may face increased M&A interest and higher acquisition multiples. Investors backing either category should stress-test assumptions about AI's actual impact on revenue models—the market is pricing in disruption that may not materialize at the speed or scale currently assumed. The trend also signals heightened scrutiny of software incumbents' ability to adapt their business models before capital dries up.

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