The procedural status is unsettled. One tracker reports that the Court declined New Jersey's petition, while another reports that it declined to take up the prediction markets petition. The underlying split is clear, though. The Third Circuit blocked New Jersey from enforcing its sports gambling laws against Kalshi, finding the state was likely preempted because the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has control over these contracts. The Ninth Circuit reached the opposite result and held that states can regulate Kalshi's sports contracts. Kalshi has since lost further circuit rulings and sought rehearing. Those requests are long shots, but they could delay any Supreme Court action. The central question is whether Congress preempted state regulation by giving the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over "swaps" traded on registered markets.
The CFTC, under Chairman Michael Selig, has taken the federal side. On April 2, 2026, it sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois over actions against CFTC-registered designated contract markets, following state cease-and-desist letters to prediction market operators. Arizona has also filed criminal charges against Kalshi executives. In July, New York's attorney general sued Kalshi, and the CFTC used its "emergency authority" to require Kalshi to keep operating in New York. In Congress, Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act on March 23, 2026, which would move sports and casino-style contracts out of CFTC jurisdiction. The NFL has also challenged Kalshi's contracts at the Supreme Court, arguing they undermine longstanding gaming safeguards. Attorneys should track the cert votes and the rehearing decisions first, since they determine timing. A Supreme Court ruling would set the rules for the entire sector, so the preemption question is the one to watch.