Google Warns Quantum Computers Could Break Encryption by 2029

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Why it matters

Google researchers and executives issued urgent warnings in early 2026 about quantum computing's threat to current encryption, predicting cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQC) could break public-key systems like RSA and ECC as early as 2029 using Shor's algorithm[1][3][7][10]. A new Google paper detailed how quantum machines could crack Bitcoin's encryption in minutes, risking theft and undermining blockchain integrity, while "store now, decrypt later" attacks are already harvesting encrypted data for future decryption[1][2][4][5]. Core event involves Google's accelerated timeline for post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration, with the company deploying quantum-resistant algorithms like ML-KEM in its services[2][11].

Key players include Google leaders Kent Walker (President of Global Affairs), Heather Adkins (VP of Security Engineering), and Sophie Schmieg (Senior Cryptography Engineer), alongside NIST, which finalized PQC standards in 2024 and mandates quantum-resistant algorithms for U.S. National Security Systems by 2027, full transition by 2030[2][3][5]. Involved entities encompass Alphabet/Google (migrating Android, Chrome, cloud), security firms like Booz Allen Hamilton, and crypto networks like Bitcoin; adversaries (state actors, cybercriminals) are actively conducting harvest attacks[1][4][6][10].

This builds on decades of warnings since quantum threats were flagged around 2018, accelerated by recent advances in qubits, error correction, and factoring estimates reducing CRQC needs from millions to ~100,000 qubits[5][7][11]. Timeline: NIST PQC standards (2024), Google warning (Feb 7, 2026), new paper (week of Apr 1, 2026), with experts urging immediate preparation amid 3-30 year ranges[1][2][3].

Newsworthy now due to Google's specific 2029 deadline—earlier than prior "decade away" estimates—and confirmation of ongoing harvest attacks, prompting calls for industry-wide PQC adoption amid Bitcoin vulnerability hype on April 1, 2026[1][2][9][11]. A Sheppard Mullin article on April 1 amplified the alarm, tying it to "harvest now" risks and NIST timelines[5].

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