The Third Circuit's decision in Kalshi v. Flaherty favored federal treatment of prediction market contracts, but a parallel case is pending in the Sixth Circuit. The CFTC published an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on March 16, 2026, inviting comment on whether to update its regulatory framework for event contracts. The precise scope of any forthcoming rules remains unclear, as does the White House's ultimate position on how aggressively the agency should pursue federal preemption.
Attorneys handling financial services, gaming, or state regulatory matters should monitor the Sixth Circuit decision and the CFTC's rulemaking timeline closely. The outcome will determine whether prediction markets operate under uniform federal standards or face a patchwork of state-by-state restrictions. For firms operating or advising platforms in this space, the jurisdictional question is now outcome-determinative for business viability.