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Apollo's Torsten Slok Says AI Has Produced No Profit Gains Outside Big Tech

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Why it matters

Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok argued in an October 24, 2026 note that AI has not yet improved profits at large non-tech companies. Focusing on the S&P 493, the S&P 500 excluding Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, Slok found profit margins and revenue per worker flat, with no evidence that AI is raising productivity. He says mainstream corporate America is pulling back, treating token spending as a cost center that squeezes margins rather than a growth engine. He also argues that macroeconomic effects will stay limited while agentic AI and token spending remain confined to a small part of the economy. A Above the Law post by Stephen Embry, who writes the TechLaw Crossroads blog, applies that argument to legal work. Embry contends that because law turns on judgment, which AI cannot supply, widespread AI use would do little to lower the value or cost of legal services, and clients have little reason to demand AI if it does not cut their costs. Embry is commenting on Slok's note, not reporting new facts.

The claim is contested. Slok's note arrived amid continuing fears of an AI investment bubble and concerns about circular deals among the Magnificent Seven. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius, in a separate note, said the growth impulse from the AI boom will peak in late 2026 or early 2027. Fortune reported that Goldman sees clearer signs of AI's impact spreading beyond tech. The open question is whether ordinary firms can turn cheaper AI into revenue growth and higher margins, and the data is not settled.

For attorneys, the stakes are twofold. The argument challenges the assumption that AI spending will broaden into corporate earnings, at a time when AI investment is supporting U.S. growth. It also gives skeptics of AI return on investment a data-based case, which will surface as earnings season tests whether AI spending is paying off. Firms evaluating AI tools for legal work should watch whether efficiency gains reach client invoices, since clients will push for savings only if they see them.

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